Stephen Aust MarketCycle Wealth Management

Stephen Aust MarketCycle Wealth Management

Coronavirus Simplified

MarketCycle Wealth Management

 

 

I pre-apologize to anyone that might be offended by this posting, although I am attempting to just present the facts.

  1. The coronavirus was first discovered in humans in 1960, although its ancestors may be quite a bit older.  It has likely been infecting mammals for most of recorded history.  The common cold is the most common example of a coronavirus.
  2. It is named because of the fact that it looks like it is wearing a crown (see photo above).
  3. Like the flu, it ‘purposely’ mutates slightly each year so that those who have developed immunity through previously catching the coronavirus will be able to get it again the next year.  This is why flu vaccines have such a poor track record, the vaccine cannot match the new year’s version of the flu.  It will be no different with the coronavirus, although any vaccine will be much hyped and perhaps mandatory.  [Viruses like measles or polio or tetanus do NOT mutate.]
  4. Sometimes the yearly mutation makes it weaker and sometimes it makes it stronger, but the goal of the virus is to just be ‘different’ each year so that it can escape being killed by a previously infected person’s saved (and potentially ready to act) antibodies.
  5. THE NUMBERS:  SARS and MERS are two examples of recent coronavirus versions that may have jumped from animals to humans.  We have to remember that the world’s population is now approaching 8-BILLION people.  SARS has killed a total of 13,000 people globally and MERS has killed a total of 500 people globally.  Statistically, these are insignificant numbers when compared to global deaths from smoking (22,000 deaths per day which translates to 8-million deaths per year)… or obesity (7500 deaths per day which translates to almost 3-million deaths per year)… or digestive problems (6500 per day, 2.4-million deaths per year)… or auto accidents (3500 deaths per day, 1.3-million deaths per year)… or even medical errors (3500 deaths per day, 1.3-million deaths per year).  As I type this on March 22, Covid-19 is killing roughly 1600 people per day, which sounds like a high number, but it is still roughly half of the amount that the common flu kills per day (the flu kills 2800 per day during its 6 month cold weather seasonal period).  Admittedly, deaths from Covid-19 will go higher before the virus goes quiet, but the death rate is already falling rapidly in the areas of the planet where it originated.  [Figures carefully extracted from the World Health Organization’s database.]
  6. SARS and MERS killed by causing a secondary pneumonia in already weakened individuals.
  7. Covid-19 is the name given to this particular coronavirus version (Covid-19 means the coronavirus version that started in 2019).  It kills via the same mechanics (secondary pnemonia) and its daily death rate so far is 1/4 that of just medical errors alone.  But it does appear to be stronger than either SARS or MERS.
  8. Covid-19 likely jumped to humans from bats since there is a 96% similarity between the two versions.  Remember that the coronavirus is found in mammals, including humans.
  9. It may be more easily transmitted than previous versions of the coronavirus… very likely, but not yet proven.
  10. Since it is an airway virus, it is spread via droplet in the air or picked up on surfaces (usually via a sneeze).
  11. Approximately 1-billion humans contract a virus each year.
  12. Of this 1-billion, approximately 150-million will contract an ‘airway’ virus.
  13. Of these airway viruses, approximately 20-million will contract the ‘coronavirus’ in any given year.
  14. It is likely that Covid-19 cases are being drastically under reported, with many being asymptomatic and other people simply thinking that they have (or had) a head cold or the flu.
  15. There may be millions of non-reported cases that have already resolved.
  16. Under reporting and doing the testing of cases in hospitals and ICU units skews the death numbers toward those who are already ill enough to enter the hospital.
  17. It is the high death numbers that are creating panic.
  18. It is likely that it is easier to develop the secondary pneumonia in people that smoke and vape or in those who are obese (and these health habits can be changed, which will help us to fight off next year’s version).
  19. Next years version of this coronavirus has a higher likelihood of being weaker than it does of being the same or stronger.  Remember that next year’s version will be different than this year’s version.  Why could next year’s version be weaker again?  Because the virus actually does not ‘want’ to kill its potential hosts, it merely wants to continue to survive and to reproduce, just like everything else on the planet.
  20. All coronaviruses hate heat, so the reported numbers may drop rapidly in the warm weather months, as they always do.

 

Thanks for reading!   I hope that everyone remains healthy.

 

 

MARKET CYCLE  —  DUAL MOMENTUM  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  LOW VOLATILITY  —  HEDGE FUND

 

Cartoon dedicated to my friend and website designer, Virginia (her site link is at the bottom footer of this page).  She taught me that I can learn anything via a Google search…

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MarketCycle Wealth Management | Stephen Aust
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