MarketCycle Wealth Management

 

The past is often prologue.  History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.

As I’ve been saying for many years now, the 5-year period from 1995 to 2000, which was one of the strongest bull markets in history (the Internet Bubble), will likely produce a rhyme with the coming 5-year period of 2024 to 2029 (the AI Bubble).  And then 2029 may rhyme with the slow motion ‘Crash of 1929’ (or perhaps rhyme with a combination of the big bear markets of 2000 & 2008).  This coming bear market will be centered around pervasive credit & debt defaults, severe currency devaluation and the collapse of the coming ‘way too high’ technology sector valuations.  I plan to be totally and completely prepared for such an event because it will be fully exploitable.  These fearful bear markets can offer gigantic and rapid profits to anyone that is willing to position accordingly.

History’s past stock bear markets:

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But remember, we likely have five more years left to this current SUPER STRONG bull market.

This chart shows the path of the last two secular stock bull markets, with one secular bear market in-between (2000-2008).  I highlighted the two important 5-year periods via two yellow lines.  The left yellow line is the ‘Internet Bubble.’ The far-right yellow line runs from September of 2024 until late 2029, so we are just now at the start of what I believe will become a parabolic AI centered SUPER BULL.

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This final chart shows another view of what I expect to happen between today and late 2029.  I believe that we will eventually break out of the current 15-year long bullish trend channel and create an entirely new and higher bullish trend channel.  The purple dashed arrow on the right side of the chart shows my 2029 target; the line is labeled #3 because it would be the third and final leg up to the current secular bull market that started at the bottom left-hand side of this chart.  This period will be a time when “stock pickers” excel and just buying the S&P-500 will definitely underperform.  It won’t be a straight line higher because markets zig-zag on their way up.  As always, this bull market will “climb a wall of worry” and when literally everyone is finally euphoric, it will truly end.

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MARKET SUMMARY:  The stock bull market continues.  The United States still leads in relative strength.  No major signs of impending risk.  Volatility may continue until election day.  The year likely ends on a strong note; the S&P-500 naturally wants to go toward 6000. Gold remains strong.  Bonds are bullish but not super strong.  Most commodities are weak.  Energy prices are low enough to offer a stimulus to the markets.  The USDollar likely gyrates sideways over time, in big up and down swings.

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Thanks for reading!

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