Beware of the Tech Bubble

 

MarketCycle Wealth Management

 

Published on July 10, 2020

When the March bear market reached within a couple of days of its panic bottom, MarketCycle sold a chunk of the protective assets that it had purchased in client accounts (purchased several weeks before the March drop) and we wanted to make use of the resultant freed up money.  We saw two strong options:

  1. Closed-End-Funds (CEFs) that were selling at an historic discount to their net-asset-value (they were priced extremely cheap) and that represented particular types of assets that would take advantage of the coming stock rebound (preferreds, convertibles and high-yield) and that paid extreme amounts of interest (as in 8-15% interest).  [Very few investors use CEFs because they don’t understand how to exploit the CEF’s complex nature.]
  2. Technology stocks, especially innovative technology and the FAANG stocks of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (now named Alphabet)

MarketCycle strongly believes that technology stocks will lead the overall stock market higher over the next decade, so we were tempted to put our new money into this.  However, in our final analysis, the CEFs offered just too great of an intermediate-term opportunity to pass up So, we ultimately chose the CEFs.  In early 2009, off of the Financial Crash bottom, we held these assets for several years as they proceeded to make 4x what the stock market did and with much less risk.

As far as stocks are concerned, technology stocks did lead the market advance off of the recent March lows.  Currently, the general stock market is not overbought, however technology stocks are now extremely overbought.  Overbought assets eventually fall… even mini-bubbles pop.

Basically what this means is that there may soon be a better opportunity to purchase these technology stocks after a mild pullback (possible pullback during July?).

To answer a client’s recent question as to why the recent big March stock market bust recovered so quickly:  “It is difficult to keep a strong secular stock market bull held down, and it still has a lot of run left in it.”

So, while technology and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 might even fall as much as 6% in the very near term, it will, in my opinion, grind much higher over the next decade.  Regardless of any pullbacks, we are in a very strong secular bull market for stocks.

 

 

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MarketCycle Wealth Management is in the business of safely navigating your investment account through rough waters.  We have clients all across the globe; our fees are low; the first 3 months are at no charge.  We earn our keep!

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MARKET CYCLE  —  DUAL MOMENTUM  —  LOW VOLATILITY  —  TREND FOLLOWING  —  HEDGE FUND

Natural Supplements That May Fight COVID-19

MarketCycle Wealth Management

 

 

PUBLISHED on:  May 16, 2020

This is an EXTRA posting about natural supplements that might fight against COVID-19; no financial information.  People are easily upset when discussing COVID-19, so I apologize in advance.  Although I am still licensed by the Virginia Board of Medicine (and others), I am NOT giving healthcare advice and NOT guaranteeing any success and you must follow the instructions of your doctor over anything presented here.  If you are not interested in this topic, then please just bypass this extra mid-month posting.

 

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute infectious disease caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).  Coronaviruses have been infecting mammals, including humans, for millennia.  The ‘common cold’ is caused by a coronavirus.

What makes this coronavirus different is its long sticky spikes (the crown of the coronavirus) which allows it to easily attach to mammal (human) cells.  This makes it both more successful and more easily transmitted and this causes the cases to be bunched together, which overwhelms hospitals.

Millions more people have contracted COVID-19 than are represented in the statistics; I believe that I had it back in February.  The global death rate is 0.004% of the total population, a small number that puts it in line with other contagious respiratory diseases, but that is of little solace to anyone who has lost a friend or family member, where one’s grief is 100%.

No virus wants to kill its host, it merely wants to enter a mammal cell, take control and then to survive long enough to reproduce.

So, what is killing people?  New research shows that it is not always COVID-19 directly.  Death is often coming from the person’s own immune system deliberately destroying lung tissue in an effort to also destroy the virus within the lung tissue.  This is death via an autoimmune response mediated by our innate and natural cytokines.  And this is why most ICU patients show other autoimmune symptoms such as a psoriasis like skin rash.  So, death by means of a ‘cytokine storm’ where lung tissue is overwhelmed and destroyed in a self-created autoimmune response.  The destruction of the lung tissue means that the person can’t breath and therefore cannot sustain life.  This is the same mechanism that resulted in loss of life during the H1N1, SARS, MERS, and 1918 flu epidemics… cytokine damage such as lung blood clots, leaking vessels in the lungs and depleted oxygen and resultant damage to heart, kidneys and liver.

The most up to date research is showing that COVID-19 is not directly killing the majority of people, in many cases it is our own immune system that is doing the dirty deed.

Cytokines are normally good, but in the presence of COVID-19, they can kill.  They are the body’s first line of defense against either invaders or injury and they arrive on the scene before any white blood cells and antibodies do.  They are produced mostly in fatty tissue, so obese people routinely make too many cytokines.  Obese people are the most likely to die with COVID-19 because they produce the most cytokines (and smoking and vaping obviously doesn’t help).  In the United States, 37% of people are overweight and 27% are obese.  Our spoon & fork are killing us in too many ways to discuss here.

So, what can be done when someone is actually experiencing the early symptoms of COVID-19?  Scientists are searching for a new wonder drug that doesn’t have the severe side effects of the popular anti-cytokine drug, Actemra (which has the side effect of destroying lung tissue and causing flu-like symptoms, which is obviously counterproductive for COVID-19 patients).  But there are already natural compounds that can shut down the cytokine response in COVID-19 patients.  We can assume that they are safer than Actemra because people take them on a daily basis all across the globe and they report no negative side effects at all.  We must remember that the words “natural compounds” makes them sound weak, but they are not.  Would anyone think that natural compounds such as digitalis, aspirin and morphine are weak compounds just because they originate from plants?

What natural and easy to obtain compounds can help to shut down this cytokine over-production in an emergency situation?  The short list of supplementation is shown below… a higher dosage is not better…  and your doctor must first okay their use against COVID-19 (but perhaps you should first ask your doctor if s/he even knows what they are).   My favorite supplement company is NOW Brand and it is carried by Amazon.  None of these supplements are expensive.  The combination of all 9 may create a powerful anti-cytokine ‘cocktail.’  The dosage is what someone of my age and muscle mass might take if any COVID-19 symptoms showed up (such as the total loss of smell and taste sensation)… and they would be taken for a total of a 4 week period ONLY if the symptoms progressed to obvious COVID-19 illness.  With any side effects, which would be rare, they should be stopped immediately.

If you are presenting with respiratory symptoms and are interested in a natural approach, write down the list of natural supplements below and ask your doctor if you can take them for a 4 week period and ask if s/he would also monitor the response for any negative reactions.  And please understand that no one can give any guarantee as to safety or effectiveness (have I given enough disclaimers yet?).

  1. curcumin  (roughly 400 MG 3x per day with meals… extremely strong against cytokines)
  2. vitamin D3  (vegan source is from wool oil… 1000 IU 2x per day at breakfast and lunch; if you take it at dinner time, it will keep you awake… and most people are deficient in D3)
  3. vitamin C  (1000 IU 3x per day with meals)
  4. licorice extract drops  (12 drops in water first thing in morning… even the Chinese government uses this against COVID-19)
  5. taurine  (amino acid… 1000 MG at breakfast… all vegans need to routinely supplement with taurine, but at a lower dose)
  6. magnesium citrate  (100 MG 3x per day with meals… and most people are deficient in magnesium)
  7. zinc gluconate  (25 MG with breakfast only)
  8. melatonin  (5 MG time-released, taken just before bed because you will definitely fall asleep… must be time-released)

9. In addition, there is a natural compound that can only be ordered by doctors from ‘www. proenzol .com’ and the product is PhysioProtease.  It is likely the strongest natural anti-cytokine product available and it must be approved by and then monitored by your doctor, just like the other supplements.  It has to be taken on a totally empty stomach at least 30 minutes before breakfast and again at least 30 minutes before dinner for as long as symptoms of COVID-19 persist.  Studies show that this all natural PhysioProtease may be stronger than any of the prescription level anti-inflammatory drugs.

 

What common natural supplements should be avoided by everyone with COVID-19 because they can increase cytokines to dangerous or even deadly levels?

  1. elderberry
  2. echinacea
  3. colloidal silver
  4. chlorella
  5. spirulina

 

06/10/2020 UPDATE:  The information in this article explains the mechanism for why recent research suggests that Dexamethasone (steroid) may be the cure that medical doctors are searching for.  This drug would rapidly shut down the cytokine response, but it should only be used on those who have been hospitalized with COVID-19.

 

Thanks for reading!  Stay safe and stay healthy!!

 

A friend said to clarify that the following is a joke because someone out there is going to believe that it is true… which is equally funny.

 

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MarketCycle Wealth Management | Stephen Aust
MarketCycle Wealth Management, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only, is not considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice, may not be suitable for everyone and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance or performance charts are not a guarantee of future performance. Portfolio performance charts are shown net of fees so the management fee, brokerage fees, trading fees and ETF fees have already been subtracted. Current performance may be higher or lower than that shown and differing accounts may show different results. Investment returns and principal value in client accounts will fluctuate. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Be sure to consult with a tax professional before implementing any investment strategy.